PHYSICS: Climate Change - Some Simple Truths

Climate Change – Some Simple Truths

M.J.Bull, 2013

The ongoing debate, more than 20 years old by now, about the planet's changing climate has become mired in the unchanging traits of human beings, and the fundamentals of the debate seem to have been lost somewhere along the way.

The human input is the politicisation, the self interest and advantage taking, the endless bickering, the debunking of one view or the other, the endless rounds of talk-fests and protocols, the skewing of data, much of which is (lies and) statistics and is largely irrelevant to the original hypothesis. Many people see it as a cause worthy of support, which gives them a sense of group belonging and a feeling of legitimisation and worth, and some also see it as a quasi-religion which can become fanaticised and repugnant, brooking no contrary view and largely independent of facts.

Most of the fundamentals of the climate change phenomenon can be put reasonably simply, considered in context, and consequences can be estimated based on evidence from similar events in the paleontological records in our geology.

1. The Chemistry of the Atmosphere: The atmosphere is significant to life based upon, among other things, the ratio of oxygen to carbon dioxide. Plants consume CO₂ and exhaust O₂ . Animals consume O₂ and exhaust CO₂ . In periods such as the Carboniferous, about 300 million years ago, the atmosphere contained higher than 'normal' concentrations of CO₂. This was a result of a high volcanic output of carbon compounds into the atmosphere. Plants, as a result of that, proliferated and that was when much of our coal and oil reserves were laid down. At that time the proliferation of plants increased the concentration of O₂ in the atmosphere, from a 'normal' 20% to about 30%. Following the Carboniferous period came the Jurassic period, a time of mega-fauna in the form of very large reptiles, their size a result of a high concentration of O₂ in the atmosphere, among other inputs. Mega- fauna have been noted in time periods much closer to our own, also probably resulting from an elevated concentration of O₂ in the atmosphere. The point is that plants provide the breath and sustenance for all animals, including humans.

2. The Water Cycle: Fresh water is essential for both plants and animals to survive and thrive. The oceans and solar radiation are the drivers of the water cycle. The spin of the planet, west to east, inside the envelope of the atmosphere means the gaseous atmosphere spins at a slightly lower speed than solid earth. Consequently the apparent movement of air is east to west (complicated further by the Coriolis force). This is the reason that the wetter areas are on the eastern seaboards of the continents. The tropics are wetter because of the heat induced north-south atmospheric circulation caused by the sun. Essentially the tropics are dominated by rising air, which precipitates its water vapour as it gains altitude and cools, causing rain. At a further distance from the equator in both hemispheres is a band of falling air, which rarely precipitates its moisture because its temperature is rising as it loses altitude, so it has the capacity to absorb rather than release water. All of the worlds deserts are in these latitudes which are about 20 to 35 degrees north and south latitude. At just below the arctic and antarctic circles there is another zone of falling air, which makes a wet zone. The wet zones contain the tropical forests and temperate coniferous forests, both are regions of high plant density, CO₂ consumption and O₂ production. These regions also regulate temperature through their influence on solar energy absorption and reflection (albedo).

3. Temperature: Global temperature has a number of different inputs. One is the planet's distance from the sun which varies over a cycle of many decades and is an astronomy related phenomenon to do with the cycle of the Earth's slightly elliptical orbit. Temperature is of major importance to the rate of plant growth, which in turn moderates temperature at the planet's surface, through its influence on the Water Cycle. The ideal temperature for plants in the present world and evolutionary state is from about 15 to 28 degrees C. Many plants are adapted to live outside this range but they do not make up the major bio-mass, or O₂ producers. The oceans are the major stabilizers of temperature because of the enormous volume and heat capacity of the water contained by them.

4. The Oceans: Oceans transfer heat energy across the globe in directions the atmosphere does not. They also contain the majority of plant life in terms of bio-mass. The ecology of the oceans is influential upon that of the land, in that it is complimentary and far larger. The highly productive areas of plant and animal life in the oceans exist in the colder regions of the planet. For example the algal blooms of the northern Pacific, the giant kelps of the south Atlantic and the huge krill populations of the Antarctic. These all support marine life from the micro to the macro. The higher water temperatures support adapted marine life, such as tropical reefs, but these are not the major oceanic plant and animal biomasses. They equate to the terrestrial drylands. The oceans also provide a different mode of heat energy transfer from the atmosphere, through different directions and routes via ocean currents. The oceans, along with the terrestrial soils, are the reservoirs of nutrients required by both plants and animals for their growth and proliferation after the basics mentioned above are supplied. The nutrients have their own cycles.

The interdependence of the above four influences are obvious, but there is no need to confuse the interdependence with complexity or unfathomable relationships. The details may be many and complex, but the basic physics and chemistry are not.

Why do we think we may have changed the above-mentioned balances within the last few hundred years? The current popular thinking is that we now emit excessive CO₂ from the burning of fossil fuels over the last 400 years. The fairly recent small volcanic eruption in Iceland which closed European air traffic for a few days emitted more hydrocarbons into the atmosphere than the entire human population did in one year. Volcanic activity does not attract media attention, and most volcanic emissions go unreported. They happen continuously on a global basis, far exceeding human CO₂ emissions. We have an inflated perception of our effect on CO₂ emissions.

Where are we really having a significant impact? We are, in a period where we are contributing to the increase in the ratio of CO₂ over O₂ , at the same time reducing the planet's plant biomass through de-afforestation for fuel and agriculture. This process is in direct opposition to the planet's normal re-balancing process for CO₂ and O₂. The need to produce more food and fuel for an increasing population is at odds with the need to increase plant biomass to balance CO₂ and O₂ in the atmosphere.

What needs to happen? We need to allow plants to re-balance the chemistry of the atmosphere. To do that we need to stop reducing plant biomass, and if possible help increase it. That will have a far larger effect than reducing our own (relatively small) contribution to atmospheric CO₂. It is our destruction of plant biomass at a time when it would naturally be increasing that is causing the imbalance we call 'Climate Change'.

What are the consequences of doing nothing differently? Nature will (passively) change what it must to allow an increase in plant biomass. A possible solution is to reduce the animal population to the level where plants again regain the necessary ascendency to re-balance the O₂ to CO₂ ratio. Possible re-balancing solutions include major volcanic activity increasing CO₂ to the advantage of plants and disadvantage of animals as happened in the Carboniferous period. Others may include a change in water cycle and temperature regimes to the disadvantage of animals and favouring plants. The oceans may have effects we do not as yet contemplate through a deficit in our knowledge.

What can we do that is of practical help? Politics and placards, taxes and financial penalties are totally irrelevant. Our rates of carbon emission are miniscule beside the power of even a single volcano. Life on Earth has been re-balancing our environment to its advantage for a billion years. We need to understand how not to interfere with that process. Plants are the dominant and fundamental form of life on Earth. Animals are, to a large extent, parasitic upon plants. We need to accept that and refrain from destroying the bulk of plant biomass on which our survival is totally dependent. Whatever is required to remove the financial or other motivation to destroy plants must be recognised and addressed. Whatever can be done to assist plants to increase quickly should be supported. There is no other solution to 'Climate Change'. If we fail to recognise these fundamental facts, the consequence is that nature will see the destruction of most of the species called homo sapiens.